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Prediction for CME (2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-02T23:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36785/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the East by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-02-02T23:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap beginning at 02/15:23Z. The source of this CME is an M4.1 flare from Active Region 3981 (N05E25) beginning at 02/23:04Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with field line opening seen exhibiting a Southern deflection seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-02-07T06:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-06T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36787/1
Model Inputs:
2025-02-02T23:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-24.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=471.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2025-02-03T05:59Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-06T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-07T16:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-07T06:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-08T00:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-05T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250203_055900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 100.72 hour(s)
Difference: 30.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-02-03T01:41Z

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